4150 words

Introduction

Back in September I published an article arguing that since the theory of African American offending (TAAO) makes successful novel predictions and hereditarian explanations don’t, that we should accept the TAAO over hereditarian explanations. I then published a follow-up arguing that crime is bad and racism causes crime so racism is bad (and I also argued that stereotypes lead to self-fulfilling prophecies which then cause the black-white crime gap). The TAAO combines general strain theory, social control theory, social disorganization theory, learning theory, and low self control theory in order to better explain and predict crime in black Americans (Unnever, 2014).

For if a theory makes successful novel predictions, therefore that raises the probability that the theory is true. Take T1 and T2. T1 makes successful novel predictions. T2 doesn’t. So if T1 and T2 both try to explain the same things, then it’s only logical to accept T1 over T2. That’s the basis of the argument against hereditarian explanations of crime—the main ones all fail. Although some attempt at a theory has been made integrating hereditarian explanations (Ellis’ 2017 evolutionary neuroandrogenic theory), it doesn’t make any novel predictions. I’ve recently argued that that’s a death knell for hereditarian theories—there are no novel predictions of any kind for hereditarianism.

But since I published my comparison of the successes of the TAAO over hereditarian explanations, I’ve come across a few “responses” and they all follow the same trend: “What about Africa, Britain, and other places where blacks commit more crime? Why doesn’t racism cause other groups to commit more crime?” or “So blacks don’t have agency?” or “Despite what you argued against hereditarian explanations what about as-of-yet-to-be-discovered genes or hormonal influences that lead to higher crime in blacks compared to whites?” or “What about IQ and it’s relationship to crime?” or “What control groups are there for TAAO studies?” or “The black-white crime gap was lower during Jim Crow, how is this possible if the TAAO is true?” or “Unnever and Gabbidon are just making excuses for blacks with their TAAO” or “The so-called ‘novel predictions’ you reference aren’t novel at all.” I will answer these in turn and then provide a few more novel predictions of the TAAO.

“What about Africa, Britain, and other places where blacks commit more crime? Why doesn’t racism cause other groups to commit more crime?“

For some reason, TAAO detractors think this is some kind of knock-down questions for the TAAO and think that they disprove it. These are easily answered and they don’t threaten the theory at all.

For one, the theory of AFRICAN AMERICAN offending is irrelevant places that… Aren’t America. It’s a specific theory to explain why blacks commit crime at a higher rate IN AMERICA, therefore other countries are irrelevant. There would need to be a specific theory of crime for each of those places and contexts. So this question doesn’t hurt the theory. So going off of the first question, the answer to the second question also addresses it—it’s a theory that’s specifically formulated to explain and predict crime in a certain population in a certain place.

For two, why would a theory that’s specifically formulated to explain crime using the unique experiences of black Americans matter for other American groups? Blacks went through 400 years of slavery and then after that went through segregation and Jim Crow, so why would it mean anything that other groups face discrimination but then don’t have higher rates of crime compared to the average? Since the theory has specific focus on understanding the unique experiences and dynamics of crime in the black American population, it’s obvious that asking about other groups is just irrelevant. Other racial and ethnic groups aren’t the primary focus—since it aims to address historical and contemporary factors that lead to higher crime in the black American population. It’s in the name of the theory—so why would other racial groups matter? Unnever and Gabbidon (2011: 37) even explicitly addressed this point:

Our work builds upon the fundamental assumption made by Afrocentists that an understanding of black offending can only be attained if their behavior is situated within the lived experiences of being African American in a conflicted, racially stratified society. We assert that any criminological theory that aims to explain black offending must place the black experience and their unique worldview at the core of its foundation. Our theory places the history and lived experiences of African American people at its center. We also fully embrace the Afrocentric assumption that African American offending is related to racial subordination. Thus, our work does not attempt to create a “general” theory of crime that applies to every American; instead, our theory explains how the unique experiences and worldview of blacks in America are related to their offending. In short, our theory draws on the strengths of both Afrocentricity and the Eurocentric canon.

“So blacks don’t have agency?”

The theory doesn’t say that blacks lack agency (the capacity to make decisions and choices) at all. What the theory does say is that systemic factors like racism, socioeconomic disparities, and historical and contemporary marginalization can influence one’s choices and opportunities. So while individuals have agency, their choices are shaped by the social context they find themselves in. So if one has a choice to do X or ~X but they physical CAN’T do X, then they do not have a choice—they have an illusion of choice. The TAAO acknowledges that choices are constrained by poverty, racism, and social inequity. So while blacks—as all humans do—have agency, some “choices” are constrained, giving the illusion of choice. Thus, constraints should also be considered while analyzing why blacks offend more. This, too, is not a knock-down question.

“Despite what you argued against hereditarian explanations what about as-of-yet-to-be-discovered genes or hormonal influences that lead to higher crime in blacks compared to whites?”

Over the years I’d say I’ve done a good job of arguing against hereditarian theories of crime. (Like testosterone increasing aggression and blacks having higher levels of testosterone, the AR gene, and MAOA.) They’re just not tenable. The genetic explanation makes no sense. (Talk about disregarding agency…) But one response is that we could find some as-of-yet-to-be-discovered genes, gene networks, or neurohormonal influences which explain the higher crime rates in black Americans. This is just like the “five years away” claim that hereditarians love to use. We just need to wait X amount of years for the magic evidence, yet five years never comes since five years away is always five years away.

“What about IQ and it’s relationship to crime?”

Of course the IQ-ists love this question. The assumption is that lower IQ people are more likely to commit crime. So low is means more crime and high IQ means less crime. Ignoring the fact that IQ is not a cause of anything but an outcome of one’s life experiences, we know that the correlation between IQ and crime is -0.01 within family (Frisell, Pawitan, and Langstrom, 2012). So that, too, is an irrelevant question. The relationship just isn’t there.

“What control groups are there for TAAO studies?”

Other than the first question about why don’t other groups who experience racism commit more crime and what about blacks in other countries, this one takes the cake. The TAAO doesn’t need control groups in TAAO tests since it focuses specifically on understanding the unique factors that contribute to crime in America. So instead of comparing different racial or ethnic groups, the TAAO seeks to identify and analyze specific historical, social, and systemic factors which shape the experiences and behaviors of black Americans within the context of American society.

“The black-white crime gap was lower during Jim Crow, why? How is this possible if the TAAO is true?”

Between 1950 and 1963, non-whites made up 11 percent of the US population, 90 percent of which were black. In 1950 for whites the murder rate was 2 to 3 deaths per 100,000 while for non-whites the rate was 28 deaths per 100,000 (28 times the US average) which then fell to 21 per 100,000 in 1961 which was still about 8 times that of the white murder rate while the rate raised again between 1962 and 1964 (Langberg, 1967). Langan (1992) showed a steady increase in the incarcerated black population from 1926 (21 percent) to 1986 (44 percent). But demographic factors account for this, like increases in the sentencing of blacks, the increase in the black population, and increase on black arrest rates—furthermore, there is evidence for increased discrimination between 1973 and 1982 that would explain the 70s-80s incarceration rates (Harding and Winship, 2016). Harding and Winship also showed that differential population growth can account for one-third of the increase in the prison population difference while the rest can be accounted for by differences in sentencing and arrest rates between 1960 and 1980. So the black population increased more in states that had higher incarceration rates. Nonetheless, the TAAO isn’t supposed to retroactively explain trends.

Therefore, the disparity between whites and blacks remained, even pre-1964. This question, too, isn’t a knockdown for the TAAO either. These questions that are asked when one is provided with the successful novel predictions of the TAAO are just cope since hereditarian explanations don’t make novel predictions and their explanations fail (like the ENA theory).

“Unnever and Gabbidon are just making excuses for blacks with their TAAO.”

This is not what they’re doing with their theory at all. A theory is a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural word that’s based on observation, empirical data, and evidence. They provide testable hypotheses that can be empirically tested. They also make predictions based on their proposed explanations. Predictive capacity is a hallmark of scientific theories. And it’s clear and I’ve shown that the TAAO makes successful novel predictions. Therefore the ability of a theory to make predictions—especially risky and novel ones—lends credibility to the validity of the theory.

The claim that the TAAO is a mere excuse for black crime is ridiculous. Because if that’s true, then all theories of crime are excuses for criminal activity. The TAAO should be evaluated on its predictive power—it’s ability to make successful novel predictions. Claims that the theory is a mere “excuse” for black crime is ridiculous, especially since the theory makes successful novel predictions. It’s clearly a valuable framework for understanding black crime in America.

“The so-called ‘novel predictions’ you reference aren’t novel at all”

We need to understand what the TAAO actually is. It’s a theory of crime that considers the African American “peerless” worldview. “Peerless” means “incomparable.” They have the worldview they do due to the 400 years of slavery and oppression like Jim Crow laws and segregation. Therefore, to explain black crime we need to understand the peerless African American experience. That’s a main premise of the theory. So the TAAO has one main premise, and it’s from this premise that the predictions of the TAAO are derived.

The peerless worldview of African Americans This premise recognizes the unique historical, contemporary, social, and cultural experiences of African Americans including their experiences of racial discrimination, social marginalization, and racial identity. This premise, then, lays the key groundwork for understanding black crime. This core premise of the TAAO then centers the theory within the context of the African American experience. Each of the predictions below are derived from the core premise of the TAAO—that of the peerless worldview of African Americans without relying on the predictions as premises used for the construction of the theory. Each of the predictions follows from the core premise, and they reflect how the African American experiences of racial discrimination, social marginalization and racial identity influence their likelihood of experiencing racial discrimination. Unnever and Gabbidon gave many arguments and references that this is indeed the case. The predictions, then, weren’t used as premise to construct the TAAO but they indeed are derived from—indeed they emerge from—the foundational experiences of African Americans and then serve as testable hypotheses which are derived from that understanding.

Thus, the predictions follow from the TAAO and they are derived from the foundational premise of the TAAO, without being used in the construction of the theory itself, qualifying as novel predictions according to Musgrave (1988): “a predicted fact is a novel fact for a theory if it was not used to construct that theory — where a fact is used to construct a theory if it figures in the premises from which that theory was deduced” and Beerbower: “the purpose of science is to enable accurate predictions and that, in fact, science cannot actually achieve more than that...The test of an explanatory theory, therefore, is its success at prediction, at forecasting. This view need not be limited to actual predictions of future, yet to happen events; it can accommodate theories that are able to generate results that have already been observed or, if not observed, have already occurred...it must have some reach beyond the data used to construct the theory“

More novel predictions of the TAAO

Therefore, since the TAAO has success in its predictions and hereditarian ones don’t (they don’t even make any novel predictions), it’s only rational to accept the theory that makes successful novel predictions over the one that doesn’t. The only reason one would accept the hereditarian explanations over the TAAO is due to bias and ignorance (racism), since the TAAO is a much more robust theory that actually has explanatory AND predictive power. So the issue here is quite clear—since we know the causes of black crime due to the successful novel predictions that the TAAO generates, then there are clear and actionable things we can do to try to mitigate the crime rate. This is something that hereditarian theories don’t do, most importantly because they don’t make any novel predictions. Since the TAAO makes successful risky novel predictions—predictions that, if they didn’t hold, they would then refute the theory—and since the predictions hold, then the theory is more likely to be true than not. The TAAO not only accommodates, but it makes predictions, and we can’t say the same for hereditarianism.

The issue is that so-called “race-neutral” theories of crime need to assume that racial discrimination isn’t a cause of black American offending because this would then limit it only to black Americans. Therefore race-neutral theories of crime don’t have the same predictive and explanatory power as a race-centric theory of crime—which is what the TAAO is. It’s clear that: the TAAO makes successful novel predictions, the predictions aren’t used as premises in the TAAO, the TAAO is a race-centric, country-specific theory of crime (and not a general theory of crime), racism and stereotypes don’t explain offending for non-African Americans, the theory doesn’t say that blacks lack agency, IQ doesn’t explain crime within families, and cope from hereditarians that one day we will find genes or neurohormonal influences which lead to crime in black Americans is just cope. It’s clear that the TAAO is the superior theory of crime because it does what scientific theories are supposed to do: successfully predict novel facts of the matter, something that hereditarianism just does not do which is why I’m justified in calling it a racist movement. Basically since there are unique characters of a demographic that require perspectives that are solely related to that group, then we need group-centric theories of crime due to the unique experiences of thsg group, and this is what the TAAO does.

Now that I’ve answered common criticisms of the TAAO, I have a few more successful novel predictions of the theory. In my original article I cited 3 novel predictions, how they followed from the theory, and then the references that confirmed the predictions:

(Prediction 1) Black Americans with a stronger sense of racial identity are less likely to engage in criminal behavior than black Americans with a weak sense of racial identity. How does this prediction follow from the theory? TAAO suggests that a strong racial identity can act as a protective factor against criminal involvement. Those with a stronger sense of racial identity may be less likely to engage in criminal behavior as a way to cope with racial discrimination and societal marginalization. (Burt, Simons, and Gibbons, 2013; Burt, Lei, and Simons, 2017; Gaston and Doherty, 2018; Scott and Seal, 2019)

(Prediction 2) Experiencing racial discrimination increases the likelihood of black Americans engaging in criminal actions. How does this follow from the theory? TAAO posits that racial discrimination can lead to feelings of frustration and marginalization, and to cope with these stressors, some individuals may resort to committing criminal acts as a way to exert power or control in response to their experiences of racial discrimination. (Unnever, 2014; Unnever, Cullen, and Barnes, 2016; Herda, 2016, 2018; Scott and Seal, 2019)

(Prediction 3) Black Americans who feel socially marginalized and disadvantaged are more prone to committing crime as a coping mechanism and have weakened school bonds. How does this follow from the theory? TAAO suggests that those who experience social exclusion and disadvantage may turn to crime as a way to address their negative life circumstances. and feelings of agency. (Unnever, 2014; Unnever, Cullen, and Barnes, 2016)

(Prediction 4) Black people who experience microaggreesions and perceive injustices in the criminal justice system are more likely to engage in serious and violent offending. How does this follow from the theory? Experiences of racial discrimination and marginalization can lead to negative emotions like anger and depression among black people. These negative emotions, which are then exacerbated by microaggreesions and perceptions of injustice in the criminal justice system, may increase the likelihood of engaging in serious and violent offending as a coping mechanism or means of asserting power. But, again, those with a stronger racial identity may be more resilient to the effect of discrimination (Isom, 2015).

(Prediction 5) Black Americans who perceive a lack of opportunity for socioeconomic advancement due to systemic barriers are more inclined to engage in criminal activity as a means of economic survival and social mobility. How does this follow from the theory? Perceptions of limited opportunities and systemic injustices can drive individuals to engage in criminal behaviors as a response to inequality (Vargas, 2023).

The fact that the TAAO generates these novel and successful predictions is evidence that we should accept the theory.

We also know that perceptions of criminal injustice predict offending (Bouffard and Piquero, 2013), we know that blacks are more likely than whites to perceive criminal injustice (Brunson and Weitzer, 2009) and we know that there are small differences among blacks and their perception of criminal injustice (Unnever, Gabbidon, and Higgins, 2011). So knowing this, more blacks should offend, right? Wrong. The vast majority of blacks don’t offend even though they share the same belief about the injustices of the criminal justice system. So how can we explain that? “Positive ethnic-racial socialization buffers the effect of weak school bonds on adolescent substance use and adult offending” (Gaston and Doherty, 2018). So the discrimination that black Americans have erodes their trust in social institutions like the school system, and then these weakened school bonds then increase the risk of offending.

Supporting a major tenet of TAAO and prior research on the protective ability of ethnic-racial socialization, the analyses showed that Black males who received positive ethnic-racial socialization messages in childhood develop resilience to the criminogenic effect of weak school bonds and face a lower risk for offending over the life course. (Gaston and Doherty, 2018)

One factor that is salient in the TAAO is racial subordination. We know that black people don’t commit crime because they are black, but we know that their offending is related to socio-environmental context like poverty, bad schools (while racism and stereotypes weaken school bonds blacks have, which makes them more likely to offend), broken families, and lead exposure (Butler, 2010) of which the TAAO addresses. We also know that there is no such thing as a “safe” level of lead exposure and that the relationship between lead and crime is robust and replicated across different countries and cultures. We also know that blacks were used as an experiment of sorts, where they were knowingly exposed to lead paint in subsidized homes.

This environmental racism (Washington, 2019), then, is another aspect of the racial subordination of blacks. And from 1976 to 2005, blacks were 7 times more likely than whites to commit murder. The fact of the matter is, the black-white murder gap has been large for over 100 years. And in discussing environmental racism, Unnever and Gabbidon (2011: 188) are explicit about the so-called genetic hypothesis of crime: “We want to be perfectly clear that our argument in no way is related to the thesis that there is a genetic cause to African American offending.” Therefore, this question doesn’t strike the heart of the TAAO and is just an attempt at evading the successful novel predictions the theory generates.

Conclusion

I’ve shown that the common “criticisms” of the TAAO are anything but and are easily answered. I then gave more successful predictions of the TAAO. It’s quite clear that one should accept the TAAO over hereditarian explanations. We also know that black isolation is a predictor of crime as well—even in 1996 blacks accounted for over 50 percent of murders and two-thirds of robberies (Shihadeh and Flynn, 1996). In 2020, blacks were six times more likely to be arrested for murder than whites. We also know that the belief by blacks in the violent stereotype predicts their offending and their adherence to the stereotype predicts crime and self control (Unnever, 2014). Therefore, a kind of stereotype threat arises here and has effects during police encounters like wkth height (Hester and Gray, 2018)(Najdowski, Bottoms, and Goff, 2015; Strine, 2018; Najdowski, 2012, 2023) , with one argument that race stereotypes track ecology, not race, (Williams, 2023) (just like for IQ; Steele and Aronson, 1995; Thames et al, 2014). We know that stereotype threats weaken school bonds and that weakened school bonds are related to offending, therefore we can infer that stereotype threats lead to an increase in crime (Unnever and Gabbidon, 2011).

Unnever and Gabbidon were quite clear and explicit in their argument and the hypotheses and predictions they made based on their theory. So when tested, if they were found not to hold then the theory would be falsified. But the theories held under empirical examination. Unnever and Gabbidon (2011: 98) were explicit in their theory and what it meant:

Put simply, we hypothesize that the probability of African American offending increases as blacks become more aware of toxic stereotypes, encounter stereotype threats, and are discriminated against because of their race. Our theory additionally posits that these forms of racism impact offending because they undermine the ability of African Americans to develop strong ties with conventional institutions. The extant literature indicates that stereotype threats and personal experiences of racial discrimination negatively impact the strength of the bonds (attachment, involvement, commitment) that black students have with their schools (Smalls, White, Chavous, and Sellers, 2007; Thomas, Caldwell, Faison, and Jackson, 2009). And, the research is clear; weak social bonds increase the probability of black offending (Carswell, 2007).

The worldview shared by black Americans is a consequence of the experience they and their ancestors had in America. This then explains their offending patterns, and why they commit more crime than whites. The socio-historical context that the TAAO looks to explain black crime is robust. Since the TAAO is successful in what it sets out to do, then, I wouldn’t doubt that there should be other race-centric theories of crime that try to explain and predict offending in those populations. The empirical successes of the TAAO’s predictions attest to the fact that other theories of crime for other races would be fruitful in predicting and explaining crime in those groups.

Hereditarians dream of having a theory that enjoys the empirical support that the TAAO has. The fact that the TAAO makes successful novel predictions and hereditarianism doesn’t is reason enough to reject hereditarian explanations and accept the TAAO. Accepting a theory that makes novel predictions is rational since it speaks to the theory’s predictive power. So by generating predictions that were previously unknown or untested and them confirming them through empirical evidence, the theory therefore shows its ability to predict and anticipate real-world phenomena. This then strengthens confidence in the theory’s underlying principles which provides a framework for understanding complex phenomena. Further, the ability of a theory to make such predictions suggests that the theory is robust and adaptable, meaning that it’s capable of accommodating new data while refining our understanding over time.

Hereditarians would love nothing more than to reduce black criminality to their genes or hormones, but reality tells a different story, and it’s one where the TAAO exists and makes successful novel predictions.