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Introduction

The “Great Replacement Theory” (GRT hereafter) is a white nationalist conspiracy theory (conceptualized by French philosopher Renaud Camus) where there is an intentional effort by some shadowy group (i.e., Jews and global elites) to bring mass amounts of immigrants with high TFRs to countries with whites where whites have low TFRs in order to displace and replace whites in those countries (Beirich, 2021). Vague statements have been made about their “IQs” in that they would be easier to “control” and that they would then intermix with whites to further decrease the IQ of the nation and then be more controllable, all the while the main goal of the GRT—the destruction of the white race—would come to fruition. Here, I will go through the logic of what I think the two premises of the GRT are, and then I will show how the two premises (which I hold to obviously be true) don’t guarantee the conclusion that the GRT is true and that there is an intentional demographic replacement. I will discuss precursors of this that are or almost are 100 years old. I will then discuss what “theory” and “conspiracy theory” means and how, by definition, the GRT is both a theory (an attempted explanation of observed facts) and a conspiracy theory (suggesting a secret plan for the destruction and replacement of the white race).

The genesis of the GRT

The idea of the GRT is older than what spurred it’s discussion in the new millennium, but it can be traced in its modern usage to French political commentator Renaud Camus in his book Le Grand Remplacement.

But one of the earliest iterations of the GRT is the so-called “Kalergi plan.” Kalergi was also one of the founders of the pan-European union (Wiedemer, 1993). Kalergi, in his 1925 book Practical Idealism, wrote that “The man of the future will be of mixed race. Today’s races and classes will gradually disappear owing to the vanishing of space, time, and prejudice. The Eurasian-Negroid race of the future will replace the diversity of peoples with a diversity of individuals.” Which is similar to what Grant (1922: 110) wrote in The Passing of the Great Race:

All historians are familiar with the phenomenon of a rise and decline in civilization such as has oc- curred time and again in the history of the world but we have here in the disappearance of the Cro-Magnon race the earliest example of the replacement of a very superior race by an inferior one. There is great danger of a similar replacement of a higher by a lower type here in America unless the native American uses his superior intelligence to protect himself and his children from competition with intrusive peoples drained from the lowest races of eastern Europe and western Asia.

The idea of a great replacement is obviously much older than what spurred it on today. Movement was much tougher back then as the technology for mass migrations was just beginning to become more mainstream (think of the mass migrations from the 1860s up until the 1930s in America from European groups). Even the migration of other whites from Europe was used as a kind of “replacement” of protestant Anglo-Saxon ways of life. Nonetheless, these ideas of a great replacement are not new, and these two men (one of which—Kalergi—wasn’t using the quote in a nefarious way, contra the white nationalists who use this quote as evidence of the GRT and the plan for it in the modern day) are used as evidence that it is occurring.

Kalergi envisioned a positive blending of the races, whereas Grant expressed concerns of replacement by so-called “inferior” groups replacing so-called “superior” groups. Grant—in trying to argue that Cro-Magnon man was the superior race, replaced by the inferior one—expressed worry of intentional demographic replacement, which is the basis of the GRT today and what the GRT essentially reduces to. The combination of these opposing perspectives of the mixing of races (the positive one from Kalergi and the negative one from Grant) show that the idea of a great replacement is much older than Camus’ worry in his book. (And, as I will argue, the fact that the 2 below premises are true doesn’t guarantee the conclusion of the GRT.)

The concept of the GRT

The GRT has two premises:

(1) Whites have fewer children below TFR
(2) Immigrants have more children above TFR

Which then should get us to:

(C) Therefore, the GRT is true.

But how does (C) follow from (1) and (2)? The GRT suggests not only a demographic shift in which the majority (whites) are replaced and displaced by minorities (in this case mostly “Hispanics” in America), but that this is intentional—that is, it is one man or group’s intention for this to occur. The two premises above refer to factual, verifiable instances: Whites have fewer children; immigrants coming into America have more children. BUT just because those two premises are true, this does NOT mean that the conclusion—GRT is true—follows from the two premises. The two premises focus on the fertility rates of two groups (American whites and immigrants to America), but acceptance of both of those premises does not mean that there is an act of intentional displacement occurring. We can allow the truth of both premises, but that doesn’t lead to the truth of the GRT. Because that change is intentionally driven by some super secret, shadowy and sinister group (the Jews or some other kind of amalgamation of elites who want easy “slave labor”).

The GRT was even endorsed by the Buffalo shooter who heniously shot and killed people in a Tops supermarket. He was driven by claims of the GRT. (The US Congress condemned the GRT as a “White supremacist conspiracy theory“, and I will show how it is a theory and even a conspiracy theory below.) The shooter even plagiarized the “rationale section” of his manifesto (Peterka-Benton and Benton, 2023). This shows that such conspiracy theories like the GRT can indeed lead to radicalization of people.

Even ex-presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy made reference to the GRT, stating that “great replacement theory is not some grand right-wing conspiracy theory, but a basic statement of the Democratic Party’s platform.” Even former Fox News political commentator Tucker Carlson has espoused these beliefs on his former show on Fox News. The belief in such conspiratorial thinking can quite obviously—as seen with the Buffalo shooter—have devestating negative consequences (Adam-Troian et al, 2023). Thus, these views have hit the mainstream as something that’s “plausible” on the minds of many Americans.

Such thinking obviously can be used for both Europe and America—where the Islamization/Africanization of Europe and the browning of America with “Hispanics” and other groups—where there is a nefarious plot to replace the white population of both locations, and these mostly derive on places like 4chan where they try to “meme” what they want into reality (Aguilar, 2023).

On theories and conspiracy theories

Some may say that the GRT isn’t a theory nor is it even a conspiracy theory—it’s a mere observation. I’ve already allowed that both premises of the argument—whites have fewer children below TFR while immigrants have more children above TFR—is true. But that doesn’t mean that the conclusion follows that the GRT is true. Because, as argued above, it is intentional demographic replacement. Intentional by whom? Well the Jews and other global elites who want a “dumb” slave population that just listens, produces and has more children so as to continue the so-called enslavement of the lower populations.

But, by definition, the GRT is a theory and even a conspiracy theory. The GRT is a theory in virtue of it being an explanation for observed demographic changes and the 2 premises I stated above. It is a conspiracy theory because it suggests a deliberate, intentional plan by the so-called global elite to replace whites with immigrants. Of course labeling something as a conspiracy theory doesn’t imply that it’s inaccurate nor invalid, but I would say that the acceptance of both premises DO NOT guarantee the conclusion that those who push the GRT want it to.

The acceptance of both premises doesn’t mean that the GRT is true. The differential fertility of two groups, where one group (the high fertility group) is migrating into the country of another group (the low fertility group) doesn’t mean that there is some nefarious plot by some group to spur race mixing and the destruction and replacement of one group over another.

As shown above, people may interpret and respond to the GRT in different ways. Some may use it in a way to interpret and understand demographic changes while not committing henious actions, while others—like the Buffalo shooter—may use the information in a negative way and take many innocent lives on the basis of belief in the theory. Extreme interpretations of the GRT can lead to the shaping of beliefs which then contribute to negative actions based on the belief that their group is being replaced (Obaidi et al, 2021). Conspiracy theories also rely on the intent to certain events, of which the proponents of the GRT do.

Some white nationalists who hold to the GRT state that the Jews are behind this for a few reasons—one of which I stated above (that they want dumber people to come in who have higher TFRs to replace the native white population in the country)—and another reason which has even less support (if that’s even possible) which is that the Jews are orchestrating the great migration of non-whites into European countries as revenge and retaliation for Europeans expelling Jews from European countries during the middle ages (109 countries). This is the so-called “white genocide” conspiracy theory. This is the kind of hate that Trump ran with in his presidential run and in his time in office as president of the United States (Wilson, 2018). This can also be seen with the phrase “Jews/You will not replace us!” during the Charlottesville protests of 2017 (Wilson, 2021). “You” in the phrase “You will not replace us!” could refer to Jews, or it could refer to the people that the Jews are having migrate into white countries to replace the white population. Beliefs in such baseless conspiracy theories gave led to mass murder in America, Australia, and Norway (Davis, 2024).

One of the main actors in shaping the view that Jews are planning to replace (that is, genocide) Whites is white nationalist and evolutionary psychologist Kevin MacDonald, more specifically in his book series on the origin of Jewish evolutionary group strategies, with A People that Shall Dwell Alone (1994), Separation and it’s Discontents (1998a), and The Culture of Critique (1998b). It is a main argument in this book series that the Jews have an evolved evolutionary group strategy that has them try to undermine and destroy white societies (see Blutinger, 2021 and also Nathan Cofnas’ responses to MacDonald ‘s theory). MacDonald’s theory of a group evolutionary strategy is nothing more than a just-so story. Such baseless views have been the “rationale” of many mass killings in the 2010s (eg Fekete, 2011; Nilsson, 2022). Basically it’s “white genocide is happening and the Jews are behind it so we need to kill those who the Jews are using to enact their plan and we need to kill Jews.” (Note that this isn’t a call for any kind of violence it’s just a simplified version of what many of these mass killers imply in their writings and motivations for carrying out their henious attacks.) One thing driving these beliefs and that jd the GRT is that of anti-Semitism (Allington, Buarque, and Flores, 2020). Overall, such claims of a GRT or “white genocide” flourish online (Keulennar and Reuters, 2023). In this instance, it is claimed that Jews are using their ethnic genetic interests and nepotism to spur these events.

Conclusion

I have discussed the GRT argument and with it so-called “white genocide” (since the two are linked). The 2 premises of the GRT are tru—that American whites have low TFR and those who are emigrating have high TFR—but but that the premises are true doesn’t guarantee the conclusion that there is some great replacement occurring, since it reduces to a kind of intentional demographic replacement by some group (say, the Jews and other elites in society who want cheap, dumb, easily controllable labor who have more children). The GRT is happening, it is claimed, since the Jews want revenge on whites for kicking them out of so many countries. That is, the GRT is an intentional demographic replacement. Those who push the GRT take the two true premises and then incorrectly conclude that there is some kind of plan to eradicate whites through both the mixing of races and bringing in groups of people who have more children than whites do.

I have scrutinized what I take to be the main argument of GRT proponents and have shown that the conclusion they want doesn’t logically follow. Inherent in this is a hasty generalization fallacy and fallacy of composition (in the argument as I have formalized it). This shows the disconnect between both premises and the desired conclusion. Further, the classification of the GRT as a conspiracy theory comes from the attribution of intention to eliminate and eradicate white through the mass migration of non-white immigrant groups who have more children than whites along with racial mixing.

The Buffalo shooting in a Tops supermarket in 2022 shows the impact of these beliefs on people who want there to be some kind of plan or theory for the GRT. Even mainstream pundits and a political candidate have pushed the GRT to a wider audience. And as can be seen, belief in such a false theory can, does, and has led to the harm and murder of innocent people.

Lastly, I showed how the GRT is a theory (since it is an attempt at an explanation for an observed trend) and a conspiracy theory (since the GRT holds that there is a secret plan, with people behind the scenes in the shadows orchestrating the events of the GRT). Such a shift in demographics need not be the result of some conspiracy theory with the intention to wipe out one race of people. Of course some may use the GRT to try to understand how and why the demographics are changing in the West, but it is mostly used as a way to pin blame on why whites aren’t having more children and why mass immigration is occurring.

All in all, my goal here was to show that the GRT has true premises but the conclusion doesn’t follow, and that it is indeed a theory and a conspiracy theory. I have also shown how such beliefs can and have led to despicable actions. Clearly the impact of beliefs on society can have negative effects. But by rationally thinking about and analyzing such claims, we can show that not only are they baseless, but that it’s not merely an observation of observed trends. Evidence and logic should be valued here, while we reject unwanted, centuries-old stereotypes of the purported plan of racial domination of certain groups.