Why do violent crimes increase as temperatures increase? Why do violent crimes decrease as the temperatures decrease? These phenomena are noticed every year, and criminologists set out to find the relationship between climate and violence and whether or not there is a curvilinear hypothesis, which crime increases as the temperature increases, but at extremely high temperatures the crime rate begins to dip down.
When the weather gets colder, crime decreases. All though crime does decrease in the Winter months, crimes that take more planning, such as property crime and robbery increase. This is due, obviously, to the fact that people don’t want to spend too much time outside so they plan their crimes ahead to minimize the time spent outside whereas in hotter temperatures this does not occur. It is known that when it’s colder, resulting criminal actions are less random than those committed in hotter temperatures.
The two trains of thought for the temperature/crime theory are the curvilinear hypothesis, as noted above, and the linear hypothesis, which argues for that as the temperature increases, so does crime without a drop in extremely high temperatures.
Mishra (2014) showed that the relationship is not a curvilinear one, but that crime rises steadily as the temperature increases. Looking at Allahabad city, India from a 62 year period from the years 1952 to 2013 with the variables being temperature, humidity and rainfall, the results of the analysis shows that temperature has a significant effect on the proclivity to commit crime, as well as murder. Relative to the temperature, humidity shows a strong correlation with crime with rainfall showing a negative correlation.
Mishra took annual data from the National Crime Record Bureau with monthly data taken from the various police stations of Allahabad city. The temperature and rainfall data was taken from local news stations and the Indian Meteorological Department.
Results of his analysis showed significant correlations with violent crime and temperature (r=.75) with murders increasing as temperatures increase. The relationship between relative humidity and crime was strong as well (r=.68) with rainfall having a negative correlation (r=-.14). Out of all three of these variables, the average temperature has more of an effect on crime than relative humidity. Using a regression model, Mishra discovered a correlation of .56, showing that temperature alone accounts for 56 percent of the variation in crime pattern. Including all three variables in the regression model shows a correlation of .61. This confirms that among the climate elements tested that temperature itself had the highest effect on crime.
Figure 2 of the paper shows that as temperatures rise (starting at about 25 degrees celsius), that the crime rate increases.Since very high temperatures are associated with rainfall, there is a reduction in crime when this occurs, thermal stress is reduced. However, when rainfall and humidity were both unchanged, higher temperatures would not cause a decrease in violence. This result is inconsistent with the curvilinear hypothesis and does not support the claim that extremely high temperatures cause decreased violence.
Van Lange, Rinderu, and Bushmen (2016) thought of the model CLASH (CLimate, Aggression, and Self-control in Humans) which shows differences within and between countries and their proclivities for aggression and criminal behavior. With lower temperatures, along with seasonal variation like what is seen in Northern Europe, peoples had to adopt a slower life history strategy with more focus on planning for the future as well as a need for self-control due to the differing variations in climate and how that has an effect on acquiring food. The CLASH model further shows that slow life history strategy, thinking into the future and self-control are important determinants in predicting violence.
As I have discussed here before, r/K Selection Theory (Life History Theory) shows that those who live in colder temperatures adopt slower strategies which lead to more future planning along with more self-control along with more altruistic behaviors shown. In a more harsh environment, such as Africa, Latin America and other locations situated near the equator, faster life history strategies are needed to offset the harsh environment, which leads to evolutionary causes for earlier menarche in black and Mexican-American girls. Faster life history strategies are needed in locations near the equator due to the harshness of the environment. This is why Africans and other peoples located at or near the equator have more children, to offset the harsher environment. No planning ahead was needed, as most likely populations near the equator wouldn’t have lived long enough to see the delayed payoff. Conversely, those in northerly climes live longer due to the need to plan ahead, and along with this ability to plan ahead came higher intelligence, which leads to yet another selector for high intellect in populations that evolved further from the equator, earlier childbirth. On top of that selector, deleterious Neanderthal alleles decreased historic fitness levels 1 percent in non-African populations, which further lead to evolution of the ability to think into the future due to less children beared. Since the future becomes more predictable the further you travel away from the equator, it becomes adaptive for peoples to adopt a slower life history strategy out of necessity, as that’s the only way to survive and they will see the fruits of their self-control due to having a longer life expectancy due to superior future time orientation in comparison to those in southerly climes.
Since a faster life history strategy is correlated with threats of harshness and higher morbidity and mortality, from the life history perspective we would reason that those with lower SES would have to adopt a faster life history strategy in order to offset the fact that they are more likely to suffer premature disability or death. Lower SES is also correlated with other r-selected strategies such as earlier sexual activity (a variable correlated with lower IQ), higher rates of childhood pregnancy and childbearing, greater number of offspring and less care and attention shown to those offspring, this study. For the third time this month, proves Rushton right with his application of r/K Selection Theory on the three races of humanity.
Van Lange, Rinderu, and Bushmen state that neighborhood deterioration, assaults, muggings, drug addicts, and presence of gangs are associated with earlier and higher rates of sexual activity. Not coincidentally, this is seen in many majority black and ‘Hispanic’-majority cities in America. They also say that as resources become scarce that women gravitate towards men with more access to resources and those that will invest in their children’s reproductive values. Though this is hardly seen in low-income communities around America, you do see a lot of black women who gravitate towards the drug dealer or another black male who is involved with illegal activities who then acquire mass amounts of capital. This is an evolutionary strategy for all women, since money is correlated with intelligence and therefore a mate with more money has better means to take care of any offspring conceived.
The CLASH model extends r/K Selection Theory, particularly where r/K Selection Theory emphasizes unpredictability and harshness as a source of environmental stress, the CLASH model emphasizes predictability over environmental stress. That is, those who evolved in northerly climes can deal with stress better than those who evolved near the equator, therefore lessening the amount of crime in those populations due to them being able to constrain themselves more. The CLASH model proposes that the combination of predictability and control shape a slow life history strategy, future time orientation, with a focus on self-control. Moreover, in an analysis of 40 work-related values in 40 countries, it was found that the countries located the furthest from the equator tended to place a greater value on future rewards, such as perseverance and thrift.
In countries closer to the equator, according to the 2014 World Fact Book, the average age of first birth for a female was 20 years of age (the countries were the Gaza strip, Liberia, Bangladesh, Kenya, Mali, Tanzania, Uganda and various other middle African countries). Conversely, for countries further away from the equator, the average age of first birth was 28 years of age (Japan, Canada, and most European countries). Those populations that evolved in warmer climates where the changes in season are minimal with unpredictable harshness tend to enact faster life history strategies than those in colder climates.
The researchers state on page 31:
One standard deviation increase in temperature was associated with a 11.3% increase in intergroup conflict and a 2.1% increase in interpersonal conflict. Examples of interpersonal conflict include spikes in domestic violence in India and Australia, greater likelihood of assaults and murders in the USA and Tanzania, ethnic violence in Europe and South Asia, and civil conflicts throughout tropical climates. Hence, we conclude that it is both differences in average temperature and differences in seasonal variation in temperature that help explain cross-national differences in aggression and violence around the world.
And on page 41:
Assuming CLASH is accurate, it is interesting to consider that people’s thoughts and behaviors may be quite different, based on the physical circumstances their ancestors faced and that they face themselves. The world is getting smaller and smaller. Electronic and social media (e.g., WhatsApp, Twitter, Facebook, email) connect us to people all over the world. Yet, people coming from differing ancestral histories and living in different locations face challenges of self-control in a variety of ways. A businessperson from London may expect a response the next day, but the alliance in Nairobi may want to take at least an extra day. If CLASH is correct, the same pattern should hold for within-country differences between a businessperson working in Chicago and the alliance working in New Orleans, or between a businessperson working in Melbourne and the alliance in Brisbane or Cairns (with London, Chicago, and Melbourne being relatively more remote from the equator, and facing greater variation in climate).
The correlation between temperature, crime and life history strategies is shockingly high. JP Rushton is now vindicated from all of the derision he experienced in the 30 plus years he was pushing his r/K Theory. This shows implications for the European ‘refugee’ crisis as well, due to the higher rates of all violent crime occurring ever since this mass exodus from MENA (Middle Eastern North African) countries.
The CLASH model is a great compliment to r/K Selection Theory and goes deeper into why behaviors differ in human populations based where ancestral evolution occurred. As temperatures increase, so does crime starting at 76 degrees Fahrenheit, with there being a negative correlation for crime committed during rainfall. The CLASH model vindicates Rushton’s supposedly ‘wacky theories’ on race, evolution and behavior. Further, the CLASH model also shows another cause for the current situation occurring in Europe. The people flooding into the continent have ancestral ties to hotter climes. They then bring their genetic proclivity to commit crimes with them to the new area, which then increases crime. This is one of many reasons for the cucking of Europe. As we look more into evolutionary causes for behavior and those behaviors that lead to more crime committed, Rushton and others will be further vindicated and when this occurs, with ample data, of course, sensible immigration policy can be had to quell the amount of crime committed by ‘migrants’ and other immigrants into our countries.